All odds below courtesy of PointsBet, current as of late Friday afternoon. Mock 3.0 is in reference to results from the three-round mock I published Thursday. Consensus mock ADP data aggregated from 17 industry mock drafts that have been published since March 15. Data credit to my good friend Vegas Refund from Twitter.
Michigan EDGE Aidan Hutchinson | 1.5 | O(+325)/U(-500)
Consensus mock ADP: 1.0
Mock 3.0: 1 (Jaguars)
The play: PASS
In Mock 3.0, my first mock draft since the NFL Combine, I shifted Hutchinson to the 1.1 line. In my pre-Combine mocks, I had Evan Neal in that slot. Jacksonville’s situation has changed since then, as I wrote on Thursday.
“1.) Jacksonville franchised LT Cam Robinson 2.) and signed OG Brandon Scherff, 3.) while EDGE Aidan Hutchinson posted a complete size-adjusted 98th-percentile RAS athletic composite and 4.) OT Evan Neal sat out NFL Combine athletic testing. Hutchinson’s athletic profile erases all doubts. At this point, he has made it extremely difficult to pass on him at the top of the board. What question can you possibly have? Historical season, historical athletic profile, immortal motor. The culture-changer Jacksonville needs exiting the Urban Meyer circus.”
All that said, there’s no way I’m advising you to tie up five units for the next month-plus for the possibility of winning just one on the other side. Juice ain’t worth the squeeze — the NFL Draft prop market is softer than a baby’s you-know-what, and we only send our monetary troops out to battle for over a month if the implied odds of them coming back with friends are sufficiently juiced in our favor. The train has left the station on that account in this case. If you have a conviction on a 1.1 long-shot — banking on a trade-up, perhaps?* — by all means, wet your beak with a roulette chip. Otherwise, I’m advising…